Loading institutional data...
Loading institutional data...
Insufficient data to determine institutional momentum.
Data as of Q3 2026
Loading snapshot...
Loading financials...
Loading valuation...
Loading analysis...
Loading dividends & returns...
Loading capital allocation...
Loading debt & leverage...
Loading performance...
Loading peer comparison...
Loading insider activity...
Loading ownership map...
Loading crowding analysis...
Loading conviction analysis...
Loading buy/sell flow...
Loading ownership trends...
Loading top holders...
Loading top holders...
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
No dividend to cover. Last year: $0 dividends + $570.0M buybacks = $570.0M returned on $940.0M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Operating income fell despite reinvestment — a warning on capital productivity. Current ROIC on all capital: 1%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $627.0M is below the $951.0M due within a year — relies on refinancing or operating cash flow. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2026-06-30 (10-Q). The cash figure is from 2025-12-31, so the two are not the same balance-sheet date — the schedule has not been refiled since.
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Thin coverage — earnings barely cover interest. Effective rate ~5.1% on $5.31B of debt.
Cash of $627.0M fully covers short-term debt of $540.0M.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it. This year they exceeded net income, so the ribbons are capped at earnings and understate what was actually returned.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.24B 100.0% | $11.73B 100.0% | $10.43B 100.0% | $9.65B 100.0% | $6.18B 100.0% | $3.57B 100.0% | $8.78B 100.0% | $8.26B 100.0% | $7.89B 100.0% | $5.92B 100.0% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $443.0M 3.1% | $387.0M 3.3% | $334.0M 3.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Operating Expenses | $13.94B 97.9% | $11.16B 95.1% | $10.03B 96.2% | $9.58B 99.3% | $5.49B 88.9% | $5.34B 149.8% | $7.72B 87.9% | $7.62B 92.2% | $6.69B 84.7% | $4.62B 78.0% |
| Operating Income | $303.0M 2.1% | $570.0M 4.9% | $394.0M 3.8% | $70.0M 0.7% | $685.0M 11.1% | -$1.77B -49.8% | $1.06B 12.1% | $643.0M 7.8% | $1.21B 15.3% | $1.31B 22.0% |
| Interest Expense | $272.0M 1.9% | $171.0M 1.5% | $121.0M 1.2% | $108.0M 1.1% | $128.0M 2.1% | $98.0M 2.7% | $78.0M 0.9% | $91.0M 1.1% | $103.0M 1.3% | $55.0M 0.9% |
| Interest & Investment Income | $94.0M 0.7% | $101.0M 0.9% | $80.0M 0.8% | $53.0M 0.5% | $25.0M 0.4% | $31.0M 0.9% | $42.0M 0.5% | $38.0M 0.5% | $34.0M 0.4% | $27.0M 0.5% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$157.0M -1.1% | -$25.0M -0.2% | -$71.0M -0.7% | $9.0M 0.1% | -$56.0M -0.9% | -$65.0M -1.8% | -$47.0M -0.5% | -$58.0M -0.7% | -$49.0M -0.6% | $10.0M 0.2% |
| Pretax Income | $146.0M 1.0% | $545.0M 4.6% | $323.0M 3.1% | $79.0M 0.8% | $629.0M 10.2% | -$1.84B -51.6% | $1.02B 11.6% | $585.0M 7.1% | $1.16B 14.7% | $1.32B 22.2% |
| Income Tax Expense | $46.0M 0.3% | $150.0M 1.3% | $88.0M 0.8% | $21.0M 0.2% | $151.0M 2.4% | -$516.0M -14.5% | $247.0M 2.8% | $148.0M 1.8% | $199.0M 2.5% | $519.0M 8.8% |
| Net Income | $100.0M 0.7% | $395.0M 3.4% | $235.0M 2.3% | $58.0M 0.6% | $478.0M 7.7% | -$1.32B -37.1% | $769.0M 8.8% | $437.0M 5.3% | $960.0M 12.2% | $797.0M 13.5% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $0.85 | $3.13 | $1.84 | $0.46 | $3.82 | -$10.72 | $6.24 | $3.55 | $7.79 | $6.45 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.83 | $3.08 | $1.83 | $0.45 | $3.77 | -$10.72 | $6.19 | $3.52 | $7.75 | $6.41 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 118.2M | 126.1M | 127.4M | 126.7M | 125.1M | 123.5M | 123.3M | 123.2M | 123.2M | 123.6M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 119.9M | 128.4M | 128.7M | 127.9M | 126.8M | 123.5M | 124.3M | 124.0M | 123.9M | 124.4M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Ranked against 7 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-09-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | $52.7B | 10.5× | 7.5× | 0.8× | 2.8% | — | 7.9% | 24.0% | 14.7% | 1.1× | 436 |
| UAL | $33.9B | 10.2× | 6.4× | 0.6× | 3.5% | — | 5.7% | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.0× | 264 |
| LUV | $20.8B | 53.7× | — | 0.7× | 2.1% | — | 1.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | — | 251 |
| AAL | $8.3B | 74.1× | 9.7× | 0.1× | 0.8% | — | 0.2% | -3.0% | 0.5% | 7.5× | 137 |
| ALK | $4.0B | 43.0× | 7.9× | 0.3× | 21.3% | — | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 4.3× | 100 |
| SKYW | $3.2B | 8.0× | 5.6× | 0.8× | 15.0% | — | 10.6% | 15.6% | 8.3% | 2.3× | 65 |
| JBLU | $1.1B | — | 26.2× | 0.1× | -2.3% | — | -6.6% | -28.4% | -5.3% | — | 81 |
| RJET | $905M | 10.3× | 6.8× | 0.5× | 13.7% | — | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.7× | 15 |
Peers = companies sharing ALK's sector (Air Transportation, Scheduled) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 2 positive fiscal years (FY2024, FY2025). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $35.71 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds -4.4%/yr for a decade (off $1.06B on the 3-yr avg basis).
On the basis ($1.02B) the requirement is -3.9%/yr. Shares issued to employees are added back in operating cash flow, so this basis treats them as free.
The market's -4.4% is more conservative than its 9-yr track record.
Default is 10.2% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 0.11B shares (market data) · net debt $4.68B
Today's price is outside this grid at every discount rate shown — the assumptions it requires lie beyond the plotted range, which is itself the finding.
mean -6.8% · volatility σ 177% · implied rate exceeded in 1/6 yrs
Central path = implied -4.4%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (177%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Last reported position per insider, carried forward. Steps can be a holding disclosed for the first time rather than a trade.
| Date | Insider | What it was | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 3 co-filers EVP & CEO of Hawaiian Airlines | Option exercise | 313 | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | 3 co-filers EVP Corp Pub Aff & Chf Leg Off | Option exercise | 210 | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | 3 co-filers EVP & CEO of Hawaiian Airlines | Tax withholding | 148 | $39.30 | $6k |
| 2026-09-29 | 3 co-filers EVP Corp Pub Aff & Chf Leg Off | Tax withholding |
Every row is classified by what it MEANT, not by its SEC code. A code is not a meaning: code P (“purchase”) also covers dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plans, and code S (“sale”) also covers 10b5-1 plan sales scheduled months earlier and option exercises sold the same day.
Across 30 days of all filings, $5.08bn of insider selling contained $3.50bn of plan sales and $0.46bn of exercise-and-sell. Only 29% was discretionary. Reading an unclassified feed badly overstates how much insiders decided.
Buys and sales are counted separately and never netted. They are different decisions by different people; a company where one officer bought while another sold is not “neutral”.
The holding line carries each insider's last reported position forward, so it shows the total held rather than a sawtooth of whoever traded that day. It covers only insiders who filed in the window.
“Filed late” counts calendar days past the two-business-day deadline with five days' grace, so a Thursday or Friday trade crossing a weekend is never flagged. It describes the company's filing discipline, not the trade.
Insider activity is descriptive. Nothing here is investment advice.
| 83 |
| $39.93 |
| $3k |
| 2026-09-29 | 3 co-filers EVP Corp Pub Aff & Chf Leg Off | Option exercise | 210 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-29 | 3 co-filers EVP & CEO of Hawaiian Airlines | Option exercise | 313 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-23 | 3 co-filers EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Option exercise | 2,010 | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | 3 co-filers EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Tax withholding | 792 | $39.70 | $31k |
| 2026-09-23 | 3 co-filers EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Option exercise | 2,010 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 3 co-filers CEO AND PRESIDENT | Option exercise | 2,698 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 6 co-filers Pres & CEO Horizon Airlines | Option exercise | 48 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 3 co-filers EVP AND CCO | Option exercise | 869 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 6 co-filers Pres & CEO Horizon Airlines | Tax withholding | 48 | $41.91 | $2k |
| 2026-09-22 | 3 co-filers CEO AND PRESIDENT | Tax withholding | 2,698 | $49.91 | $135k |
| 2026-09-22 | 3 co-filers EVP AND CCO | Tax withholding | 869 | $41.91 | $36k |
| 2026-09-22 | 3 co-filers CEO AND PRESIDENT | Option exercise | 2,698 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 3 co-filers EVP AND CCO | Option exercise | 869 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 6 co-filers Pres & CEO Horizon Airlines | Option exercise | 499 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 6 co-filers Pres & CEO Horizon Airlines | Tax withholding | 499 | $41.91 | $21k |
| 2026-09-22 | 6 co-filers Pres & CEO Horizon Airlines | Option exercise | 48 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-22 | 6 co-filers Pres & CEO Horizon Airlines | Option exercise | 499 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Minicucci Benito CEO AND PRESIDENT | Open-market buy | 25,000 | $40.06 | $1.0m |
| 2026-08-03 | Harrison Andrew R EVP AND CCO | Open-market sale | 5,300 | $49.67 | $263k |
| 2026-06-29 | Tackett Shane R Pres. of Ops Sub & CFO | Grant | 4,100 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | Sievert G Michael Director | Grant | 4,258 | $44.52 | $190k |
| 2026-05-13 | Lofton Adrienne Rochelle Director | Grant | 5,186 | $38.56 | $200k |
| 2026-05-13 | Shimer Peter A Director | Grant | 5,186 | $38.56 | $200k |
| 2026-05-13 | 2 co-filers Group filing | Grant | 2,593 | $38.56 | $100k |
| 2026-05-13 | Hogan Kathleen T Director | Grant | 5,186 | $38.56 | $200k |
| 2026-05-13 | Sandvik Helvi Kay Director | Grant | 5,186 | $38.56 | $200k |
| 2026-05-13 | Conner Raymond L. Director | Grant | 5,186 | $38.56 | $200k |
| 2026-05-13 | Bedient Patricia M Director | Grant | 6,483 | $38.56 | $250k |
| 2026-05-13 | Beer James A Director | Grant | 5,186 | $38.56 | $200k |
| 2026-05-13 | Yeaman Eric K Director | Grant | 5,186 | $38.56 | $200k |
| 2026-05-13 | 2 co-filers Group filing | Grant | 2,593 | $38.56 | $100k |
| 2026-04-01 | 2 co-filers EVP & Chief People Officer | Grant | 17,960 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-04-01 | 2 co-filers EVP & Chief People Officer | Grant | 44,900 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-03-20 | 3 co-filers EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Option exercise | 697 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-20 | 3 co-filers EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Tax withholding | 279 | $36.91 | $10k |
| 2026-03-20 | 3 co-filers EVP & Chief Operating Officer | Option exercise | 697 | $0.00 | — |
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 37th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE 2% against ROIC 1% — 1% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Profit and sales moved in opposite directions this year.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG&A | — | — | — | — | — | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Operating Income | 7.8 | 12.1 | -49.8 | 11.1 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 |
| Income Tax | 1.8 | 2.8 | -14.5 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Net Income | 5.3 | 8.8 | -37.1 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on ALK: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
Earns -8.02pts against its cost of capital — capital is being consumed, not created.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 10.1% | 10.2% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -0.0pts |
| FY2020 | -18.8% | 10.2% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -28.9pts |
| FY2021 | 6.5% | 5.4% | 1.1pts |
| FY2022 | 0.7% | 9.1% | -8.4pts |
| FY2023 | 3.5% | 6.6% | -3.1pts |
| FY2024 | 4.1% | 6.8% | -2.6pts |
| FY2025 | 2.0% | 8.9% | -6.8pts |
| Now | 1.1% | 10.2% | -9.1pts |
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | not reported | 22.0% | 13.5% |
| FY2017 | not reported | 15.3% | 12.2% |
| FY2018 | not reported | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| FY2019 | not reported | 12.1% | 8.8% |
| FY2020 | not reported | -49.8% | -37.1% |
| FY2021 | not reported | 11.1% | 7.7% |
| FY2022 | not reported | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| FY2023 | not reported | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| FY2024 | not reported | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| FY2025 | not reported | 2.1% | 0.7% |
Return on equity (2%) and return on invested capital (1%) are within a couple of points in FY2025, so the headline return is the operating return — there is no meaningful leverage effect to strip out.
$2.7B of goodwill — 27% of invested capital. The gap is what was paid above the fair value of what was bought; it is real capital shareholders provided, so neither bar is the whole answer.
ROIC ex-goodwill is 2.9% against 2.12% reported — the return is earned on a capital base inflated by what was paid for acquisitions, not by the operating business alone.
Converts 1.53x of reported profit into free cash flow over 5 years, with accruals negative.
The cash conversion cycle could not be computed — receivables, inventory or cost of revenue is not reported — so the earliest accrual warning is not part of this verdict.
Stressed coverage falls to 0.8x — below the level at which interest is reliably covered.
| EBITDA decline | Interest coverage |
|---|---|
| 0% | 1.11x |
| 5% | 1.06x |
| 10% | 1.00x |
| 15% | 0.95x |
| 20% | 0.89x |
| 25% | 0.84x |
| 30% | 0.78x |
| 35% | 0.72x |
| 40% | 0.67x |
| 45% | 0.61x |
| 50% | 0.56x |
| 55% | 0.50x |
| 60% | 0.45x |
Ladder as of 2026-06-30 (10-Q); cash from the 2025-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2025.
Balance sheet at 2025-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
Net debt is 5.7x EBITDA, so coverage today depends on earnings holding up rather than on the balance sheet.
At $35.71, free cash flow must compound -2.02%/yr for 10 years. It has done -1.45%/yr over 6 years.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | −144.4% | −2.0% |
| FY2022 | −134.3% | −2.0% |
| FY2025 | −19.7% | −2.0% |
The percentile ranks the FISCAL-YEAR point, because the distribution behind each strip is built from fiscal-year closes — ranking a TTM figure inside it would compare two different bases. TTM basis: TTM.
The implied rate of -2.02% has not been achieved in any of the last 3 years.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $100M | $100M |
| Share-based comp | $10M | $110M |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $1.14B | $1.25B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.25B | $1.25B |
| Capex | −$309M | $940M |
| Free cash flow | $940M | $940M |
| FCF after SBC | $930M | $930M |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | -59.4% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | 73.2% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | 56.2% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 8.1% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 12.6% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | 21.3% | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -7.3 percent |
| FY2020 | -7.8 percent |
| FY2021 | -4.0 percent |
| FY2022 | -9.6 percent |
| FY2023 | -5.6 percent |
| FY2024 | -5.4 percent |
| FY2025 | -5.6 percent |
Below the line, the asset base is being consumed faster than it is replaced.
Below the line for 2 consecutive years to the latest.
Depreciation here includes amortisation of acquired intangibles — goodwill written down over time, customer lists, acquired technology. Capex does not replace those and is not meant to, so an acquisitive or asset-light company sits below 1.0 permanently and correctly. The signal is cleanest for capital-intensive businesses, where the two measure the same physical base. For that reason this informs the earnings-quality verdict but never caps it.
SBC is added back inside operating cash flow, so reported free cash flow treats shares issued to employees as free. Percent of revenue says how expensive the payroll is; percent of operating cash flow says how much of the cash exists only because the charge was added back. The buyback offset is buybacks over SBC — below 1.0 the repurchase does not cover the shares issued.
Figures are the latest fiscal year (FY2025) from the company's own filings, not a trailing-twelve-month window — Q2 reads fiscal years throughout so the cash-conversion ratios and these share one basis. A blank is a line the filer did not report; it is never read as zero.